W17_APE_My Re-Baseline Schedule

1. Problem Definition

Last week it is been recognized that we already in 50% class program. For W12 it is time for re-baseline schedule due to some changes in our class project. I had personnel communication with DR Paul and from his emails I had the knowledge that there are two methods of doing re-baseline and some conditions for re-baseline. DR Paul suggests me to try these two methods on hands so I can have my understanding for this concept. I used my personnel schedule for exercise re-baseline in W17 blog posting.

 

 

Figure 1 Re-baseline My Planning

 

2. Identify the Feasible Alternative

There are many conditions for doing baseline, both worst and good case. The new things I’ve learned from DR Paul paper^[1] that we can do re-baseline by “giving the money back” condition because over estimation in original stage. Last condition is fit with my re-baseline exercise since I want to reduce part of my schedule for some activities.    

3. Development of the Outcome for Alternative

Two methods of re-baseline^[2]: a. Using sunk cost with formula BCWP = ACWP and BCWS = ACWP at the date of re-baseline [used by private sector] and b. Refer to ANSI 748 that only adjust the amount of BCWS impacted by amount of change orders at the date of re-baseline. These two methods present in following Figure 2

 

Figure 2 Two Methods of Re-baseline^[2]

As I mentioned before that I will do re-baseline for changing my plan relevant with many assumptions as listed below in week W12:

 

Figure 3 My New Plan for BCWS

There are many changes for my future BCWS activities [from week W13 to W22]: a. Reduce hours for Sim_01 because correction in capacity except week W14 for my duty roster manager, b. Reduce hours for Sim_03 [significant reduction time because to my blogs progress already in week W16], c. Additional hours for my paper [Sim_05] and d. Reduction but not significant time for Sim_05 for problem solving activity. The rest activities remain the same. With these assumptions then I will perform my re-baseline.

4. Selection Criteria

It is interesting to see the output coming from these two methods for comparison analysis.      

5. Analysis and Comparison of the Alternative

First method using sunk cost give result as present in Figure 4

 

Figure 4 My Re-baseline Method 1 Sunk Cost

BCWP = BCWS = ACWP = 28 k-USD at the time of re-baseline. All three graphs intersect at the same point for ACWP value. The new total BCWS value [remaining] is 50 k-USD instead 61 k-USD as originally planned. It means that I will return the value of 11 k-USD to program or equivalent with 56 hours deduction time if one hour worth of 200 USD.

Second method refer to ANSI 748^[3] as present in Figure 5

 

Figure 5 My Re-baseline Method 2 Refer to ANSI 748

For second method there are differences in amount for BCWP, BCWS & ACWP. The only change is for remaining weekly BCWS same as for first method. The amount of BCWP = 34 k-USD, ACWP = 28 k-USD and BCWS = 31 k-USD straight from previous week. The new total BCWS value [remaining] is 53 k-USD instead 61 k-USD as originally planned. It means that I will return the value of 8 k-USD to program or equivalent with 42 hours deduction time if one hour worth of 200 USD.

It can be seen from this comparison that first method provides more realistic value in my opinion compare to second method. The history after 11 weeks should give clearer picture for production capacity instead having it slides from previous week. That is why now I can understand why DR Paul also recommended to use first method.

6. Selection of the Preferred Alternative

I will select the re-baseline output from first method for my guideline plan for remaining weeks of this class program until finish time.

7. Performance Monitoring and the Post Evaluation of Result

I should re-arrange my personnel plan since I am aware that my scheme is returning time instead adding more time. I should proof to the management that I can do it and I will do it.

References

[1]Giammalvo, P. (Vol.II, Issue VII-July 2013). Practical Look How Private Sector Entrepreneurial Contractors Use Earned Value (And what “Lessons Learned” this might offer for State and Federal Governments). Retrieved from PM World Journal.

[2]Personnel Communication with DR Paul Giammalvo by e-mail 19 November 2013.

[3]www.srs.gov. (1998), ANSI/EIA-748-1998 Earned Value Management Systems page 14, Retrieved from http://www.srs.gov/general/EFCOG/02GovtReferences/03NDIAANSI/ANSIEIA748.pdf.