Although earned value (EV) offering a new paradigm on well servicing operation monitoring to measure its performance, the operation itself still contain uncertainties. Well servicing is not a fixed project as the project done on the surface. When we’re working subsurface beneath the ground, so many uncertainties haunts the operation.
A workover operation was performed to shut off the watered formation and recomplete to produce the oil from the same formation. Recompletion means to change all existing completion string and replace with the new one. Unfortunately, we found difficulties when millng and fishing the packer which extends the duration and of course the cost. Decision was made to continue the operation. Looking at the progress and the performance, revision to the program is a necessity.
The EV approach is challenged to help us create and monitor the revised budget and duration.
Development of alternatives
The information from daily wellwork report and the problem report are put a task table which compare the plan and actual condition, both in time and cost terms. This activity table is similar to Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The cost then plotted in a cost versus time curve reflecting every task which is done, ongoing, and predicted. An EV curve can be generated from this information.
Development of prospective outcomes
A set of information is retrieved from the 57th day of workover activities in an offshore platform, versus its 36 days as programmed. A cost versus time curve reflecting every task which is done, ongoing, and predicted shown in the picture 1.
When we revise the program, the curve will be look like below:
Selection of the acceptable criteria.
The monitoring curve must show the following: equal value of work to its budget, equal value of the project equity to the budget planned for the work done, stay on schedule
Analysis and comparison of alternatives.
Picture 1 shows that the work is extended and the budget is over. The EV curve give us answer that some problem occur so that the work is still under value. Based on the information given by the engineer onsite, we then create a revision program. Assuming the same attempts for the 2nd packer milling and fishing, optimized, and the rest of the initial program still the same, a revision curves generated and shown by Picture 2. The estimate at completion is predicted 97% over the original budget and the work duration will be finish in the 78th day.
With the EV concept the consecutive following days until the work actually completed, are put in the table and plotted in the curve, shown in Picture 3.
Again, some uncertainty problems are solved and optimization is done during completing the wellwork. Although 8 days extended to complete this work, the cost is closed to the revision budget. With the CPI of 1.01 at the end of this work, the EV concept already help us generate the revision budget closely precise.
Selection of the preferred alternative
The EV curve can be used as a monitoring tool, which shows equal value of work to its budget, equal value of the project equity to the budget planned for the work done, and keep stay on schedule. The EV concept also help in creating rebaseline of the program which having uncertainties.
Performance monitoring and postevaluation of results
The most common reason for not using earned value analysis is “I have not got the time”. While proper project plan preparation will let this analysis without additional effort. However, to have a worked and successful application of earned value in any project is having complete requirements and a good project plan, which includes the WBS to fully document scope, and a schedule and cost estimate that is integrated to the WBS.
Humphreys, G. C. (2011). Project management using earned value (2nd ed.). Orange, CA: Humphreys & Assoc.
Lewis, J. P. (2011). Project planning scheduling & control: The ultimate hands-on guide to bringing projects in on time and on budget. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Lukas, J. A. (2008). EVM.01 Earned Value Analysis – Why it Doesn’t Work. 2008 AACE INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS. Retrieved from http://www.icoste.org/LukasPaper.pdf
Stratton, R. W. (2009). Predicting Project Completion Date Using Earned Value Management.AACE International 2009 Spring Symposium. Retrieved from http://www.earnedschedule.com/Docs/Ray%20Stratton%20AACE%20Presentation.pdf