W11_AEP_Rebaselining the well work operation using Earned Value


Problem identification

Although earned value (EV) offering a new paradigm on well servicing operation monitoring to measure its performance, the operation itself still contain uncertainties. Well servicing is not a fixed project as the project done on the surface. When we’re working subsurface beneath the ground, so many uncertainties haunts the operation.

A workover operation was performed to shut off the watered formation and recomplete to produce the oil from the same formation. Recompletion means to change all existing completion string and replace with the new one. Unfortunately, we found difficulties when millng and fishing the packer which extends the duration and of course the cost. Decision was made to continue the operation. Looking at the progress and the performance, revision to the program is a necessity.

The EV approach is challenged to help us create and monitor the revised budget and duration.

Development of alternatives

The information from daily wellwork report and the problem report are put a task table which compare the plan and actual condition, both in time and cost terms. This activity table is similar to Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The cost then plotted in a cost versus time curve reflecting every task which is done, ongoing, and predicted. An EV curve can be generated from this information.

Development of prospective outcomes

A set of information is retrieved from the 57th day of workover activities in an offshore platform, versus its 36 days as programmed. A cost versus time curve reflecting every task which is done, ongoing, and predicted shown in the picture 1.

Picture 1. Cost versus Time Chart and Prediction

Picture 1. Cost versus Time Chart and Prediction

When we revise the program, the curve will be look like below:

Picture 2. Rebaselined curve

Picture 2. Rebaselined curve

Selection of the acceptable criteria.

The monitoring curve must show the following: equal value of work to its budget, equal value of the project equity to the budget planned for the work done, stay on schedule

Analysis and comparison of alternatives.

Picture 1 shows that the work is extended and the budget is over. The EV curve give us answer that some problem occur so that the work is still under value. Based on the information given by the engineer onsite, we then create a revision program. Assuming the same attempts for the 2nd packer milling and fishing, optimized, and the rest of the initial program still the same, a revision curves generated and shown by Picture 2. The estimate at completion is predicted 97% over the original budget and the work duration will be finish in the 78th day.

With the EV concept the consecutive following days until the work actually completed, are put in the table and plotted in the curve, shown in Picture 3.

Picture 3. Actual chart

Picture 3. Actual chart

Again, some uncertainty problems are solved and optimization is done during completing the wellwork. Although 8 days extended to complete this work, the cost is closed to the revision budget. With the CPI of 1.01 at the end of this work, the EV concept already help us generate the revision budget closely precise.

Selection of the preferred alternative

The EV curve  can be used as a monitoring tool, which shows equal value of work to its budget, equal value of the project equity to the budget planned for the work done, and keep stay on schedule. The EV concept also help in creating rebaseline of the program which having uncertainties.

Performance monitoring and postevaluation of results

The most common reason for not using earned value analysis is “I have not got the time”. While proper project plan preparation will let this analysis without additional effort. However, to have a worked and successful application of earned value in any project is  having complete requirements and a good project plan, which includes the WBS to fully document scope, and a schedule and cost estimate that is integrated to the WBS.

References

Humphreys, G. C. (2011). Project management using earned value (2nd ed.). Orange, CA: Humphreys & Assoc.

Lewis, J. P. (2011). Project planning scheduling & control: The ultimate hands-on guide to bringing projects in on time and on budget. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Lukas, J. A. (2008). EVM.01 Earned Value Analysis – Why it Doesn’t Work. 2008 AACE INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS. Retrieved from http://www.icoste.org/LukasPaper.pdf‎

Stratton, R. W. (2009). Predicting Project Completion Date Using Earned Value Management.AACE International 2009 Spring Symposium. Retrieved from http://www.earnedschedule.com/Docs/Ray%20Stratton%20AACE%20Presentation.pdf

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5 Comments

Filed under Afriandi EP, Week 11

5 responses to “W11_AEP_Rebaselining the well work operation using Earned Value

  1. ABSOLUTELY AWESOME job, Pak Afriandi!!! VERY proud of what you did. Your Graph 3 was done PERFECTLY- you set the NEW starting point at the ACWP as those sunk costs are a fact. Then you used the INTERSECTION where the time now line crosses the ACWP line and that became your NEW starting point for the BCWS (revised), the BCWP (revised) and of course, for the ACWP.

    And I am really impressed to see you understanding that earned value is NOT complicated. The problem is, only a handful of people really take the time to learn and understand it at this level of detail… sure everyone memorizes the formula but there are not many who really can USE earned value the way it was intended to be used.

    Again, VERY impressed and looking forward to seeing your paper wrapped up shortly!!!

    Another suggestion- given your understanding of Earned Value, I really hope you will go for your EVP!!! As I recall, there are only two of them in Indonesia right now, maybe 3……

    Keep up the good work!!

    BR,
    Dr. PDG, Jakarta

    • thank you very much, doc. my paper would be close to this case and previous posts. your comments are really appreciated. helping me to understand EV concept and encouraging me to finish my paper.

      • Pak Afriandi, what you might want to do is look at Pak Arif’s posting and take your same case study and try it using the ANSI 748 approach?

        See which method makes the most sense from your perspective?

        Just be sure to CITE HUMPHREY’S and claim credit for your assigned problems from SIM 05….

      • thank you doc, n will look at it.

        again, please advise for the citation since i comprehend the knowledges in Humphrey from several chapters.

      • All you have to do is identify which book, Chapter, page and question number you want to claim credit for and if I approve your posting you can claim credit for that question…. (Does NOT have to be EXACT, but using the same tool and technique.

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