W8.1_APE_Own Selection for the Candidate of Next Indonesian President


  1. Problem Definition

One of hot topic in every Indonesian newspaper is the next general election for Indonesian President 2014. Public interested on the Candidates about their leadership and capacity that can bring Indonesia for better condition than now. Same with others, I have also my preference candidate using Analytic Hierarchy Process [AHP] tool.    

Figure 1

Figure 1 Indonesia General Election 2014

  1. Identify the Feasible Alternative

Based on available polling conducted by Indonesian Survey Institutions[1], [2] & [3] there are four names on the top rank today. They are Prabowo Subianto [PBS], Joko Widodo [JWD], Jusuf Kalla [JSK] and Aburizal Bakrie [ARB]. Other names are available but their polling percentage is not significant compare to these four names.

  1. Development of the Outcome for Alternative

I have established a simple diagram follow AHP process[4] for my criteria adapted from references[5] & [6] for the Next President present in Figure 2:

  Figure 2

Figure 2 AHP Diagram

The expressed pairwise comparison present in Figure 3 with their final eigenvector after many iterations:

Figure 3

Figure 3 AHP Criteria and Simulation Result  

  1. Selection Criteria

AHP process will provide the most preferred candidate based on the highest value of eigenvector from the rank of my criteria as listed above.    

 

  1. Analysis and Comparison of the Alternative

According to Figure 3, JWD is the “most preferred candidate for the next President” according to my criteria, which could be different than others. The 2nd candidate is PBS then JFK and ARB. I put him as the best leadership performance that we need today for better Indonesia. My preference seems in line with current public vote as mention before and present in Figure 4:

Figure 4

 Figure 4 Comparison AHP Result with Public Pooling 

The above list shows that according to the pooling, JFK and ARB also compete with other candidate such as WRT, MGT and DHI. But in my personnel opinion MGT will let JWD as her political party representative, so the remaining potential candidate other than my list will be DHI or WRT.      

  1. Selection of the Preferred Alternative

Refer to my criteria for the Next President, JWD is the perfect candidate for this position and it doesn’t matter if others agree or disagree.   

  1. Performance Monitoring and the Post Evaluation of Result

I understand that there is always bargaining in politics. In my opinion, his political party should be smart combining JWD with PBS or JFK. Together hopefully they can lead Indonesia better than before.

References

[1]merdeka.com. (2013). Survei IRC Elektabilitas Jokowi Meroket Jauh Tinggalkan Prabowo. Retrieved from http://www.merdeka.com/politik/survei-irc-elektabilitas-jokowi-meroket-jauh-tinggalkan-prabowo.html.

 [2]news.okezone.com. (2013). Survey LIPI Jokowi Kalahkan Prabowo. Retrieved from  http://news.okezone.com/read/2013/06/27/339/828496/survei-lipi-jokowi-kalahkan-prabowo/.

 [3]news.detik.com. (2013). Jadi Media Darling Jokowi Unggul Di Survei Tokoh Terpopuler 2013. Retrieved from  http://news.detik.com/read/2013/07/24/185148/2313426/10/jadi-media-darling-jokowi-unggul-di-survei-tokoh-terpopuler-2013/.

[4]alaskafisheries.noaa.gov. (2006). An Illustrated Guide to the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Retrieved from http://alaskafisheries.noaa.gov/sustainablefisheries/sslmc/july-06/ahptutorial.pdf.

[5]latompinews.blogspot.sg. (2012). Syarat Jadi Presiden. Retrieved from http://latompinews.blogspot.sg/2012/06/6-syarat-jadi-presiden-ri-2014-versi.html.

 [6]lantaranews.com. (2013). Kriteria Calon Presiden. Retrieved from http://www.antaranews.com/berita/359341/kriteria-calon-presiden-menurut-jusuf-kalla.

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1 Comment

Filed under Arif P, Week 08

One response to “W8.1_APE_Own Selection for the Candidate of Next Indonesian President

  1. VERY interesting case study, Pak Arif and your use of AHP was fantastic. I loved it!!! Much more appropriate tool/technique than what you used previously.

    Nice work following our step by step process and your citations were EXCELLENT……

    What I would really like to see you doing now is MENTORING others who are struggling or falling behind. If you are willing to help someone else, I will give BOTH of you credit for the one blog posting.

    Keep up the good work and looking forward to seeing you help others on your team with their blog postings.

    BR,
    Dr. PDG, Jakarta

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